Week 9 — 2026

Model: gbm_v1_w4_ct_frz_2022. Tap any game for key matchup stats — click “Full breakdown” to open advanced metrics, notable narratives, and last-5 form. Full methodology and disclaimers: About this model.

Real track record so far this season

+7.64u

Units won · 42-39 · 5.6% ROI on 136.5u

51.4%

Spreads win rate · 18-17 · +3.73u · 5.7% ROI

52.2%

Totals win rate · 24-22 · +3.91u · 5.5% ROI

🏈 This week’s slate

56 games

This week’s free play, followed by the next 10 kickoffs of 56. Matchup stats are open to everyone — the model’s picks, stakes and projections come with a membership.

A play locks in as Official once it holds through two updates, and we grade it at that line.

Sat 10/31, 3:15 PM ET

Stanford 18

Louisville 36

Louisville 87% to win

Stanford +22.5 1.0uOfficial

62.5% confidence · Good to +21.5

UNDER 59.5 1.5uOfficial

Good to 58.5 (1.5u to 59.0)

Louisville -22.5 -108Stanford +22.5 +106

Over 60.5 +104Under 60.5 -114

💤 Body clock

▾ Matchup stats

Full breakdown →

LouisvilleStanford

Offense (EPA/play) 0.329th 0.1849th

Offense: success rate 42.8%44th 38.4%105th

Offense: explosives 16.5%8th 12.7%81st

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.1286th 0.30136th

Defense: explosives allowed 13.5%91st 14.4%113th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Louisville's offense ranks 15th nationally in overall offensive efficiency, while Stanford ranks 120th defending it.

Delaware @ Western Kentucky

Tue 10/27, 7:00 PM ET

Western Kentucky -3.0 +112Delaware +3.0 -117

Over 55.0 -110Under 55.0 +106

See the model’s read →

🔄 QB change

▾ Matchup stats

Western KentuckyDelaware

Offense (EPA/play) 0.02121st 0.1469th

Offense: success rate 36.6%126th 40.2%81st

Offense: explosives 11.8%109th 15.0%24th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.1079th 0.16100th

Defense: explosives allowed 13.8%100th 14.5%116th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Sam Houston @ Missouri State

Tue 10/27, 8:00 PM ET

Missouri State -6.0 +102Sam Houston +6.0 -105

Over 50.0 -129Under 50.0 +124

See the model’s read →

🔄 QB change

▾ Matchup stats

Missouri StateSam Houston

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1089th -0.03130th

Offense: success rate 42.7%46th 35.8%132nd

Offense: explosives 15.3%20th 11.5%114th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.25128th 0.0652nd

Defense: explosives allowed 14.8%126th 12.4%58th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Missouri State's offense ranks 25th nationally in creating explosive plays, while Sam Houston ranks 108th defending it.

Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee

Wed 10/28, 7:00 PM ET

Kennesaw State -1.5 +108Middle Tennessee +1.5 -110

Over 50.5 +101Under 50.5 -105

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

Middle TennesseeKennesaw State

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1660th 0.0799th

Offense: success rate 42.1%53rd 40.1%85th

Offense: explosives 14.5%37th 8.7%138th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.16104th 0.17109th

Defense: explosives allowed 13.4%86th 12.5%64th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Kennesaw State's offense ranks 34th nationally in protecting against havoc plays, while Middle Tennessee ranks 136th defending it.

Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State

Wed 10/28, 8:00 PM ET

Jacksonville State -3.5 +115New Mexico State +3.5 -118

Over 50.5 +102Under 50.5 -105

See the model’s read →

💤 Body clock

▾ Matchup stats

New Mexico StateJacksonville State

Offense (EPA/play) -0.03129th 0.1850th

Offense: success rate 41.3%65th 45.2%18th

Offense: explosives 15.6%15th 15.3%19th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.0649th 0.1288th

Defense: explosives allowed 13.2%83rd 11.0%23rd

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Jacksonville State's offense ranks 21st nationally in creating explosive plays, while New Mexico State ranks 104th defending it.

Florida Atlantic @ North Texas

Thu 10/29, 7:30 PM ET

North Texas -14.5 +106Florida Atlantic +14.5 -111

Over 78.5 -105Under 78.5 -106

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

North TexasFlorida Atlantic

Offense (EPA/play) 0.362nd 0.2524th

Offense: success rate 46.7%10th 43.6%33rd

Offense: explosives 17.7%1st 10.6%128th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.1495th 0.25127th

Defense: explosives allowed 14.3%111th 17.2%137th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

North Texas's offense ranks 5th nationally in overall offensive efficiency, while Florida Atlantic ranks 134th defending it.

Troy @ James Madison

Thu 10/29, 7:30 PM ET

James Madison -18.5 -110Troy +18.5 +105

Over 50.5 -112Under 50.5 +111

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

James MadisonTroy

Offense (EPA/play) 0.2233rd 0.07100th

Offense: success rate 42.6%48th 38.8%98th

Offense: explosives 13.3%56th 11.6%113th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.0439th 0.0756th

Defense: explosives allowed 13.0%78th 13.0%76th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Tulane @ Charlotte

Fri 10/30, 7:00 PM ET

Tulane -8.5 +100Charlotte +8.5 -104

Over 46.5 -112Under 46.5 +110

See the model’s read →

🔄 QB change

▾ Matchup stats

CharlotteTulane

Offense (EPA/play) -0.01126th 0.0992nd

Offense: success rate 37.5%115th 30.7%138th

Offense: explosives 13.0%66th 12.5%91st

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.23123rd 0.1182nd

Defense: explosives allowed 14.0%103rd 11.8%47th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Tulane's offense ranks 4th nationally in short-yardage power running, while Charlotte ranks 116th defending it.

Baylor @ UCF

Fri 10/30, 7:30 PM ET

Baylor -2.5 +104UCF +2.5 -107

Over 48.5 -107Under 48.5 +105

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

UCFBaylor

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1277th 0.0993rd

Offense: success rate 40.6%75th 37.4%117th

Offense: explosives 12.0%103rd 14.2%41st

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.0438th -0.0512th

Defense: explosives allowed 12.4%60th 12.6%65th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Kent State @ Sacramento State

Fri 10/30, 10:30 PM ET

Kent State -4.5 -109Sacramento State +4.5 -670

See the model’s read →

💤 Body clock

▾ Matchup stats

Sacramento StateKent State

Offense (EPA/play) -0.11137th -0.00125th

Offense: success rate 36.4%127th 37.0%121st

Offense: explosives 10.2%132nd 12.3%99th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.1698th 0.1075th

Defense: explosives allowed 15.3%128th 14.2%107th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

★16Arizona @ ★13Texas Tech

Sat 10/31, 12:00 PM ET

Texas Tech -3.5 -112Arizona +3.5 -102

Over 55.5 +107Under 55.5 -108

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

Texas TechArizona

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1564th 0.3010th

Offense: success rate 43.7%32nd 46.6%12th

Offense: explosives 13.0%67th 12.9%72nd

Defense (EPA/play allowed) -0.0417th -0.0416th

Defense: explosives allowed 14.9%127th 10.8%19th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

45 more games this week

You’re seeing 11 of 56. The rest of the slate comes with a membership — every game we have a prediction for, each with its pick, its stake and a full breakdown.

See the full slate

One free play every week, always.