Pay Dirt · Week 1
Who scores a touchdown, and which of those prices is worth taking. One free play every week; the full board is part of a membership.
1u on the play of the week, 0.5u on every board play — 4.5u across the whole card this week. A unit is whatever you are comfortable losing; everything here is counted in units, never dollars.
Play of the Week
Free79% of team carries · on the field for 83% of snaps · 79% of team carries inside the 10
The board
7 playsEvery player we priced
Top 100We price every player a book hangs a number on — 100 this week — and rank them by our own chance of scoring, next to the price and the edge against it. Most of those edges are negative. That is the table that shows why only 7 of them are worth betting.
The record 54 weeks · +56.00u · 18.1% a unit Backtest
| Season | Plays | Units | Play of the Week | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 69/230 | +14.81u | 10-8 | +2.62u |
| 2024 | 59/195 | +22.02u | 13-5 | +7.84u |
| 2025 | 27/84 | +19.17u | 12-6 | +7.18u |
| All | — | +56.00u | 35-19 | +17.66u |
Play of the Week · 2025
| 1 | Josh Jacobs | +0.85u |
| 2 | De'Von Achane | +1.00u |
| 3 | Mark Andrews | +2.00u |
| 4 | Nick Chubb | -1.00u |
| 5 | Rachaad White | +1.40u |
| 6 | Ashton Jeanty | +0.83u |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | +0.95u |
| 8 | Tee Higgins | +1.38u |
| 9 | DK Metcalf | -1.00u |
| 10 | Kyren Williams | +1.00u |
| 11 | Ja'Marr Chase | -1.00u |
| 12 | Jameson Williams | -1.00u |
| 13 | Zach Charbonnet | +1.20u |
| 14 | Kyren Williams | +0.95u |
| 15 | Woody Marks | +0.80u |
| 16 | Ja'Marr Chase | -1.00u |
| 17 | Kenneth Walker III | -1.00u |
| 18 | Chase Brown | +0.82u |
Units, not records — a scorer at +300 only has to land once in four. Simulated against recorded closing prices, out of sample. Not a record of bets placed.