Louisville
2026 record
5-3
Against the spread
5-3 ATS
Over / Under
7-1 O/U
Top performers — 2026
Season leaders in each category, by yards. Box-score totals — site context only, never used by the model.
Passing
Lincoln Kienholz QB
2,094 yds · 12 TD · 208 att
Rushing
Isaac Brown RB
707 yds · 7 TD · 92 car
Receiving
Tre Richardson WR
633 yds · 2 TD · 40 rec
Team stats
National rank in parentheses (1 of 138 FBS teams). Green is good, red is bad, on each stat's own scale.
Plain box-score averages, 2026 season. No opponent adjustment — a soft schedule flatters these numbers.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.7 (11th) | 27.4 (99th) |
| Total yards per game | 483.9 (8th) | 418.3 (122nd) |
| Rushing yards per game | 214.0 (16th) | 150.9 (79th) |
| Passing yards per game | 269.9 (29th) | 267.4 (130th) |
| Yards per play | 7.87 (1st) | 5.67 (72nd) |
| Third-down conversions | 45.0% (36th) | 34.7% (33rd) |
Opponent-adjusted efficiency — the model’s own 2026 ratings.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.21 (15th) | 0.16 (33rd) |
| Success rate | 4.3% (37th) | 4.1% (47th) |
| Explosive plays (15+ yds, all) | 2.8% (12th) | 1.4% (54th) |
| Explosive RUN plays | 4.8% (1st) | 2.8% (26th) |
| Pass-game success rate | 8.5% (24th) | 7.2% (24th) |
| Line yards per carry | 2.7 (117th) | 2.9 (92nd) |
| Stuff rate (runs at/behind line) | 24.0% (133rd) | 12.8% (136th) |
| Power-run success (3rd/4th & short) | 67.9% (89th) | 62.5% (41st) |
| Havoc rate (TFL/sack/PBU/FF) | 17.9% (120th) | 15.3% (85th) |
2026 results
ATS = covered the closing spread · O/U = hit the closing total. Graded after the fact, never fed into the model.
| Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 | vs Stanford | W 52–24 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 7 | @ Syracuse | W 34–26 | ✗ | O |
| Wk 6 | vs Florida State | W 44–20 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 5 | @ NC State | L 28–31 | ✗ | O |
| Wk 4 | vs Wake Forest | L 27–30 | ✗ | U |
| Wk 3 | vs SMU | W 41–31 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 2 | vs Villanova | W 59–13 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 1 | @ Ole Miss | L 38–41 | ✓ | O |
Team fingerprint
LouisvillePercentile vs all FBS · 2026 season. Dashed ring = FBS median.