UCF
2026 record
4-4
Against the spread
5-3 ATS
Over / Under
5-3 O/U
Top performers — 2026
Season leaders in each category, by yards. Box-score totals — site context only, never used by the model.
Passing
Keyone Jenkins QB
1,181 yds · 11 TD · 180 att
Rushing
Duke Watson RB
597 yds · 3 TD · 92 car
Receiving
Joshua Derry WR
428 yds · 3 TD · 37 rec
Team stats
National rank in parentheses (1 of 138 FBS teams). Green is good, red is bad, on each stat's own scale.
Plain box-score averages, 2026 season. No opponent adjustment — a soft schedule flatters these numbers.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.7 (45th) | 23.0 (58th) |
| Total yards per game | 376.1 (82nd) | 354.0 (64th) |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.4 (55th) | 118.9 (36th) |
| Passing yards per game | 206.7 (92nd) | 235.1 (105th) |
| Yards per play | 6.03 (69th) | 5.37 (51st) |
| Third-down conversions | 43.7% (54th) | 41.5% (97th) |
Opponent-adjusted efficiency — the model’s own 2026 ratings.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.10 (56th) | 0.21 (18th) |
| Success rate | 3.8% (45th) | 4.9% (34th) |
| Explosive plays (15+ yds, all) | -0.0% (96th) | 1.8% (38th) |
| Explosive RUN plays | -0.4% (96th) | 3.4% (8th) |
| Pass-game success rate | 3.2% (57th) | 4.5% (51st) |
| Line yards per carry | 2.6 (128th) | 2.5 (19th) |
| Stuff rate (runs at/behind line) | 20.5% (104th) | 20.1% (64th) |
| Power-run success (3rd/4th & short) | 64.0% (107th) | 71.5% (82nd) |
| Havoc rate (TFL/sack/PBU/FF) | 14.3% (60th) | 15.0% (92nd) |
2026 results
ATS = covered the closing spread · O/U = hit the closing total. Graded after the fact, never fed into the model.
| Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 | vs Baylor | L 9–41 | ✗ | O |
| Wk 8 | vs BYU | W 39–31 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 6 | @ Oklahoma State | L 28–42 | ✗ | O |
| Wk 5 | @ Houston | L 17–27 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 4 | vs TCU | W 21–13 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 3 | vs Georgia State | W 44–30 | ✗ | O |
| Wk 2 | @ Pittsburgh | L 7–12 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 1 | vs Bethune-Cookman | W 73–6 | ✓ | O |
Team fingerprint
UCFPercentile vs all FBS · 2026 season. Dashed ring = FBS median.