TCU
2026 record
4-4
Against the spread
3-5 ATS
Over / Under
1-7 O/U
Top performers — 2026
Season leaders in each category, by yards. Box-score totals — site context only, never used by the model.
Passing
Jaden Craig QB
2,207 yds · 11 TD · 269 att
Rushing
Jeremy Payne RB
429 yds · 2 TD · 88 car
Receiving
Kari Ashley TE
560 yds · 4 TD · 38 rec
Team stats
National rank in parentheses (1 of 138 FBS teams). Green is good, red is bad, on each stat's own scale.
Plain box-score averages, 2026 season. No opponent adjustment — a soft schedule flatters these numbers.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4 (101st) | 13.9 (6th) |
| Total yards per game | 399.9 (60th) | 262.7 (5th) |
| Rushing yards per game | 111.9 (126th) | 105.4 (21st) |
| Passing yards per game | 288.0 (12th) | 157.3 (9th) |
| Yards per play | 6.26 (54th) | 4.60 (7th) |
| Third-down conversions | 44.2% (46th) | 33.0% (16th) |
Opponent-adjusted efficiency — the model’s own 2026 ratings.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (90th) | 0.27 (10th) |
| Success rate | 1.1% (92nd) | 7.2% (11th) |
| Explosive plays (15+ yds, all) | 0.3% (84th) | 3.2% (8th) |
| Explosive RUN plays | -2.0% (124th) | 3.2% (14th) |
| Pass-game success rate | 4.3% (47th) | 11.9% (4th) |
| Line yards per carry | 2.7 (119th) | 2.6 (32nd) |
| Stuff rate (runs at/behind line) | 20.3% (103rd) | 20.0% (67th) |
| Power-run success (3rd/4th & short) | 70.5% (74th) | 58.9% (28th) |
| Havoc rate (TFL/sack/PBU/FF) | 16.0% (91st) | 16.5% (61st) |
2026 results
ATS = covered the closing spread · O/U = hit the closing total. Graded after the fact, never fed into the model.
| Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 | vs Kansas | W 22–16 | ✗ | U |
| Wk 8 | vs West Virginia | L 20–24 | ✗ | U |
| Wk 7 | @ Baylor | W 17–6 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 5 | vs BYU | L 10–17 | ✗ | U |
| Wk 4 | @ UCF | L 13–21 | ✗ | U |
| Wk 3 | vs Arkansas State | W 31–7 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 2 | vs Grambling | W 63–7 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 1 | vs North Carolina | L 10–15 | ✗ | U |
Team fingerprint
TCUPercentile vs all FBS · 2026 season. Dashed ring = FBS median.