Pittsburgh
2026 record
6-3
Against the spread
5-4 ATS
Over / Under
4-5 O/U
Top performers — 2026
Season leaders in each category, by yards. Box-score totals — site context only, never used by the model.
Passing
Mason Heintschel QB
1,304 yds · 14 TD · 148 att
Rushing
Damon Ferguson Jr. RB
662 yds · 6 TD · 123 car
Receiving
Cataurus Hicks WR
698 yds · 6 TD · 34 rec
Team stats
National rank in parentheses (1 of 138 FBS teams). Green is good, red is bad, on each stat's own scale.
Plain box-score averages, 2026 season. No opponent adjustment — a soft schedule flatters these numbers.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6 (49th) | 20.9 (43rd) |
| Total yards per game | 439.9 (30th) | 340.9 (52nd) |
| Rushing yards per game | 153.2 (75th) | 75.6 (3rd) |
| Passing yards per game | 286.6 (14th) | 265.2 (127th) |
| Yards per play | 6.33 (49th) | 5.60 (65th) |
| Third-down conversions | 41.3% (71st) | 40.7% (90th) |
Opponent-adjusted efficiency — the model’s own 2026 ratings.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.11 (48th) | 0.17 (31st) |
| Success rate | 4.0% (41st) | 6.3% (15th) |
| Explosive plays (15+ yds, all) | 1.4% (43rd) | 0.9% (73rd) |
| Explosive RUN plays | 1.5% (42nd) | 2.9% (22nd) |
| Pass-game success rate | 0.5% (87th) | 5.9% (36th) |
| Line yards per carry | 3.2 (30th) | 1.7 (2nd) |
| Stuff rate (runs at/behind line) | 15.7% (32nd) | 27.9% (6th) |
| Power-run success (3rd/4th & short) | 72.8% (68th) | 63.5% (43rd) |
| Havoc rate (TFL/sack/PBU/FF) | 12.7% (26th) | 17.3% (44th) |
2026 results
ATS = covered the closing spread · O/U = hit the closing total. Graded after the fact, never fed into the model.
| Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 | vs Georgia Tech | W 34–11 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 8 | @ Miami | L 23–52 | ✗ | O |
| Wk 7 | @ Boston College | L 21–27 | ✗ | O |
| Wk 6 | vs North Carolina | L 17–21 | ✗ | U |
| Wk 5 | @ Virginia Tech | W 35–33 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 4 | vs Bucknell | W 59–0 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 3 | vs Syracuse | W 27–13 | ✓ | U |
| Wk 2 | vs UCF | W 12–7 | ✗ | U |
| Wk 1 | vs Miami (OH) | W 59–14 | ✓ | O |
Team fingerprint
PittsburghPercentile vs all FBS · 2026 season. Dashed ring = FBS median.