NC State
2026 record
1-1
Against the spread
1-1 ATS
Over / Under
1-1 O/U
Top performers — 2026
Season leaders in each category, by yards. Box-score totals — site context only, never used by the model.
Passing
CJ Bailey QB
365 yds · 1 TD · 40 att
Rushing
Jayden Scott RB
148 yds · 2 TD · 16 car
Receiving
Keenan Jackson WR
129 yds · 0 TD · 6 rec
Team stats
National rank in parentheses (1 of 138 FBS teams). Green is good, red is bad, on each stat's own scale.
Plain box-score averages, 2026 season. No opponent adjustment — a soft schedule flatters these numbers.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.5 (38th) | 17.0 (51st) |
| Total yards per game | 445.0 (45th) | 275.5 (43rd) |
| Rushing yards per game | 246.0 (19th) | 160.0 (103rd) |
| Passing yards per game | 199.0 (94th) | 115.5 (8th) |
| Yards per play | 7.42 (25th) | 4.78 (42nd) |
| Third-down conversions | 50.0% (32nd) | 18.5% (5th) |
Opponent-adjusted efficiency — the model’s own 2026 ratings.
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.12 (24th) | 0.06 (64th) |
| Success rate | 2.0% (66th) | 3.4% (38th) |
| Explosive plays (15+ yds, all) | 0.5% (63rd) | -0.4% (115th) |
| Explosive RUN plays | 2.0% (26th) | -0.7% (114th) |
| Pass-game success rate | 3.2% (60th) | 3.1% (49th) |
| Line yards per carry | 3.6 (23rd) | 2.1 (20th) |
| Stuff rate (runs at/behind line) | 11.5% (23rd) | 23.8% (44th) |
| Power-run success (3rd/4th & short) | 88.9% (27th) | 41.7% (27th) |
| Havoc rate (TFL/sack/PBU/FF) | 18.4% (117th) | 17.5% (56th) |
2026 results
ATS = covered the closing spread · O/U = hit the closing total. Graded after the fact, never fed into the model.
| Opponent | Result | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | vs Richmond | W 73–0 | ✓ | O |
| Wk 1 | @ Virginia | L 8–34 | ✗ | U |
Team fingerprint
NC StatePercentile vs all FBS · 2026 season. Dashed ring = FBS median.