Week 3 — 2026

Model: gbm_v1_w4_2022. Tap any game for key matchup stats — click “Full breakdown” to open advanced metrics, notable narratives, and last-5 form. Full methodology and disclaimers: About this model.

Real track record so far this season

66.7%

Spreads win rate · 4-2 · -4.5% ROI

50.0%

Totals win rate · 4-4 · 27.3% ROI

🏈 This week’s slate

75 games

This week’s free play, followed by the next 10 kickoffs of 75. Matchup stats are open to everyone — the model’s picks, stakes and projections come with a membership.

A play locks in as Official once it holds through two updates, and we grade it at that line.

Sat 9/19, 12:45 PM ET

NC State 27

Vanderbilt 27

Vanderbilt 69% to win

NC State +3.5 3.0uOfficial

59.6% confidence

Total Model: 53.4

Vanderbilt -3.0 -110NC State +3.0 +105

Over 50.0 -108Under 50.0 +103

▾ Matchup stats

Full breakdown →

VanderbiltNC State

Offense (EPA/play) 0.09103rd 0.3523rd

Offense: success rate 39.9%86th 41.8%71st

Offense: explosives 10.7%108th 13.0%72nd

Defense (EPA/play allowed) -0.1025th 0.0980th

Defense: explosives allowed 13.7%94th 13.3%92nd

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

NC State's offense ranks 26th nationally in creating explosive running plays, while Vanderbilt ranks 129th defending it.

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh

Thu 9/17, 7:30 PM ET

Pittsburgh -10.5 +101Syracuse +10.5 -104

Over 52.0 +102Under 52.0 -108

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

PittsburghSyracuse

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1479th 0.10100th

Offense: success rate 40.9%81st 41.1%79th

Offense: explosives 10.9%99th 17.2%20th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) -0.1121st -0.1313th

Defense: explosives allowed 11.7%72nd 8.3%9th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

★6Miami @ Wake Forest

Fri 9/18, 7:30 PM ET

Miami -20.5 -106Wake Forest +20.5 +101

Over 57.0 +102Under 57.0 -108

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

Wake ForestMiami

Offense (EPA/play) 0.4412th 0.752nd

Offense: success rate 44.4%48th 59.8%1st

Offense: explosives 17.2%19th 19.4%8th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.17111th 0.0154th

Defense: explosives allowed 13.1%89th 13.8%95th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Miami's offense ranks 2nd nationally in pass-game success rate, while Wake Forest ranks 131st defending it.

Houston @ ★13Texas Tech

Fri 9/18, 8:00 PM ET

Texas Tech -9.0 +122Houston +9.0 -123

Over 53.0 -101Under 53.0 -104

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

Texas TechHouston

Offense (EPA/play) 0.2258th 0.4116th

Offense: success rate 43.4%54th 52.9%6th

Offense: explosives 10.8%102nd 16.5%27th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.0567th -0.0243rd

Defense: explosives allowed 18.1%136th 9.4%22nd

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Houston's offense ranks 20th nationally in creating explosive plays, while Texas Tech ranks 117th defending it.

Portland State @ ★10Oregon

Fri 9/18, 10:30 PM ET

Oregon -57.5 -109Portland State +57.5 -112

Over 68.5 -113Under 68.5 -119

See the model’s read →

🔥 Hostile environment

▾ Matchup stats

OregonPortland State

Coastal Carolina @ Delaware

Sat 9/19, 11:30 AM ET

Delaware -5.0 -101Coastal Carolina +5.0 -104

Over 56.5 -117Under 56.5 +110

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

DelawareCoastal Carolina

Offense (EPA/play) 0.05108th 0.2648th

Offense: success rate 39.9%87th 41.6%73rd

Offense: explosives 16.9%23rd 15.4%37th

Defense (EPA/play allowed) -0.1512th 0.0463rd

Defense: explosives allowed 9.1%17th 12.0%78th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

★3Georgia @ Arkansas

Sat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET

Georgia -24.5 -111Arkansas +24.5 +109

Over 54.0 -107Under 54.0 +103

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

ArkansasGeorgia

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1097th 0.891st

Offense: success rate 43.8%52nd 58.9%2nd

Offense: explosives 9.1%127th 27.0%1st

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.21120th -0.257th

Defense: explosives allowed 7.5%4th 11.8%76th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Georgia's offense ranks 3rd nationally in overall offensive efficiency, while Arkansas ranks 113th defending it.

Tulane @ Kansas State

Sat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET

Kansas State -20.5 -111Tulane +20.5 +102

Over 49.5 -108Under 49.5 -106

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

Kansas StateTulane

Offense (EPA/play) 0.2651st 0.1871st

Offense: success rate 46.7%31st 31.8%134th

Offense: explosives 14.0%56th 13.0%73rd

Defense (EPA/play allowed) -0.286th 0.1083rd

Defense: explosives allowed 9.8%31st 11.2%60th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Kansas State's offense ranks 24th nationally in line yards per carry, while Tulane ranks 117th defending it.

Bowling Green @ Iowa State

Sat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET

Iowa State -22.0 -119Bowling Green +22.0 +113

Over 45.0 +117Under 45.0 -124

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

Iowa StateBowling Green

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1575th -0.07130th

Offense: success rate 31.7%135th 37.7%108th

Offense: explosives 11.8%90th 14.9%42nd

Defense (EPA/play allowed) -0.0434th 0.36137th

Defense: explosives allowed 9.0%14th 15.9%121st

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Arizona State @ Kansas

Sat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET

Spread Market: Kansas +5.5

Total Market: 50.5

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

KansasArizona State

Offense (EPA/play) 0.1576th 0.2746th

Offense: success rate 38.1%102nd 48.8%19th

Offense: explosives 16.3%29th 20.0%3rd

Defense (EPA/play allowed) 0.0357th -0.0237th

Defense: explosives allowed 11.6%68th 12.1%79th

2026 season · not opponent-adjusted

Kansas's offense ranks 14th nationally in avoiding stuffed runs, while Arizona State ranks 113th defending it.

Mercer @ Georgia Tech

Sat 9/19, 12:00 PM ET

Georgia Tech -39.5 -109Mercer +39.5 -104

Over 60.5 -104Under 60.5 -112

See the model’s read →

▾ Matchup stats

Georgia TechMercer

64 more games this week

You’re seeing 11 of 75. The rest of the slate comes with a membership — every game we have a prediction for, each with its pick, its stake and a full breakdown.

See the full slate

One free play every week, always.